Newroz vs Karbala: prediction and statistics

Iraq · Iraq Stars League · 6 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Newroz · Karbala

Key facts

• Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 34% of Newroz home games and 39% of Karbala away games.
• Our model makes Newroz the favourite at 74%; a draw is 18%.

Result

Our model: Newroz win 74%, draw 18%, Karbala win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 37%.

Form

Newroz: last five matches — D-D-W-W-D.

• 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
• 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home

Karbala: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.

• 7 matches without a win · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions

Table: Newroz — 5, Karbala — 20 (of 20).

Team statistics for three seasons

Newroz at home and Karbala away, 2024–2026.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers