Xpect
Nice vs Strasbourg: prediction and statistics
France · Ligue 1 · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Nice 5.9, Strasbourg 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Nice 1.8, Strasbourg 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 33%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 69%, typical match 67%.
Result
Market line without margin: Nice win 41%, draw 27%, Strasbourg win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Nice: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Strasbourg: last five matches — L-D-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Nice — 14, Strasbourg — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Nice at home and Strasbourg away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Nice | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 43% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 57% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 65% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 30% | 38% |
Head to head
34 meetings in our database: Nice won 10, 13 draws, Strasbourg won 11. Per match: 2.5 goals, 9.4 corners, 3.6 yellow cards.
- 22.04.2026: Strasbourg 0:2 Nice
- 04.04.2026: Strasbourg 3:1 Nice
- 03.01.2026: Nice 1:1 Strasbourg
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 31%.
Who is more likely to win Nice vs Strasbourg?
Market line without margin: Nice 41%, draw 27%, Strasbourg 32%.