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Northern Ireland vs Georgia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 5 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Northern Ireland 4.9, Georgia 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 41%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Northern Ireland 2.3, Georgia 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Northern Ireland win 40%, draw 20%, Georgia win 40%.
Form
Northern Ireland: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Georgia: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Northern Ireland at home and Georgia away, 2024–2026.
| Northern Ireland | Georgia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| Win rate | 80% | 44% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 10% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 33% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Northern Ireland won 1, 0 draws, Georgia won 0. Per match: 1.0 goals, 10.0 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 25.09.2026: Georgia 0:1 Northern Ireland
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 42%.
Who is more likely to win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
Market line without margin: Northern Ireland 40%, draw 20%, Georgia 40%.