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Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Notts County · Sheffield Wednesday
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Notts County 4.9, Sheffield Wednesday 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Notts County 1.8, Sheffield Wednesday 2.4; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 61%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Notts County win 38%, draw 26%, Sheffield Wednesday win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Notts County: last five matches — D-W-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Sheffield Wednesday: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Notts County — 22, Sheffield Wednesday — 6 (of 25).
Team statistics for three seasons
Notts County at home and Sheffield Wednesday away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Win rate | 25% | 75% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 75% | 100% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 12.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 75% | 50% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Notts County won 0, 0 draws, Sheffield Wednesday won 3. Per match: 3.0 goals.
- 12.08.2014: Sheffield Wednesday 3:0 Notts County
- 17.03.2012: Notts County 1:2 Sheffield Wednesday
- 20.08.2011: Sheffield Wednesday 2:1 Notts County
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model: Notts County 38%, draw 26%, Sheffield Wednesday 36%.