Xpect
Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 11.0 corners in the match: Novorizontino 6.7, São Bernardo 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 66% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 54%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Novorizontino 1.9, São Bernardo 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 55%, typical match 46%.
Result
Market line without margin: Novorizontino win 63%, draw 24%, São Bernardo win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Novorizontino: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 16 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
São Bernardo: last five matches — W-D-L-W-W.
Table: Novorizontino — 3, São Bernardo — 12 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Novorizontino at home and São Bernardo away, 2024–2026.
| Novorizontino | São Bernardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 52 | 14 |
| Win rate | 54% | 57% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 11.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 71% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 43% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Novorizontino won 1, 2 draws, São Bernardo won 0. Per match: 2.3 goals, 8.7 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 31.05.2026: São Bernardo 1:1 Novorizontino
- 07.02.2026: Novorizontino 2:1 São Bernardo
- 06.02.2025: São Bernardo 1:1 Novorizontino
Referee
Lucas Canetto Bellote: 39 matches in our database, 5.2 yellow cards per match (competition average 5.0); over 4.5 cards in 62% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
Our model expects 11.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 66%.
How many yellow cards in Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Novorizontino vs São Bernardo?
Market line without margin: Novorizontino 63%, draw 24%, São Bernardo 13%.