Xpect
Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Once Caldas 5.1, Bucaramanga 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 6.0 yellow cards: Once Caldas 2.7, Bucaramanga 3.3; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 72% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 72%, typical match 67%.
Result
Market line without margin: Once Caldas win 49%, draw 29%, Bucaramanga win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Once Caldas: last five matches — L-W-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Bucaramanga: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Once Caldas — 7, Bucaramanga — 11 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Once Caldas at home and Bucaramanga away, 2024–2026.
| Once Caldas | Bucaramanga | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 63 | 60 |
| Win rate | 52% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 42% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 73% | 63% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Once Caldas won 10, 8 draws, Bucaramanga won 2. Per match: 2.0 goals, 10.1 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 19.03.2026: Bucaramanga 1:1 Once Caldas
- 10.09.2025: Bucaramanga 0:0 Once Caldas
- 09.02.2025: Once Caldas 2:1 Bucaramanga
Referee
Ferney·Ossa·Orozco: no matches of this referee in our database yet.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
Our model expects 6.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 72%.
Who is more likely to win Once Caldas vs Bucaramanga?
Market line without margin: Once Caldas 49%, draw 29%, Bucaramanga 23%.