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Ordabasy vs Kaisar: prediction and statistics
Kazakhstan · Kazakhstan Cup · 7 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 43% of Ordabasy home games and 50% of Kaisar away games.
- Our model makes Ordabasy the favourite at 73%; a draw is 18%.
Result
Final score 4:1.
Result
Our model: Ordabasy win 73%, draw 18%, Kaisar win 10%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Ordabasy: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 21 matches unbeaten · at home
Kaisar: last five matches — L-D-L-D-L.
- 9 matches without a win · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Ordabasy at home and Kaisar away, 2024–2026.
| Ordabasy | Kaisar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Win rate | 71% | 17% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 33% |
Head to head
30 meetings in our database: Ordabasy won 12, 8 draws, Kaisar won 10. Per match: 2.3 goals, 1.8 yellow cards.
- 11.10.2026: Kaisar 1:4 Ordabasy
- 20.03.2026: Ordabasy 2:0 Kaisar
- 10.08.2025: Kaisar 1:1 Ordabasy
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ordabasy vs Kaisar?
Our model: Ordabasy 73%, draw 18%, Kaisar 10%.