Xpect
Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Orlando City SC 5.0, Columbus Crew 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Orlando City SC 2.1, Columbus Crew 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Orlando City SC win 47%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Orlando City SC: last five matches — D-L-W-W-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Columbus Crew: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Orlando City SC — 16, Columbus Crew — 25 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Orlando City SC at home and Columbus Crew away, 2024–2026.
| Orlando City SC | Columbus Crew | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 50 |
| Win rate | 47% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 74% |
| Total corners per match | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 39% | 24% |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Orlando City SC won 11, 6 draws, Columbus Crew won 10. Per match: 3.4 goals, 11.6 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 16.09.2026: Columbus Crew 2:1 Orlando City SC
- 12.04.2026: Columbus Crew 1:1 Orlando City SC
- 04.10.2025: Orlando City SC 1:1 Columbus Crew
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Our model expects 9.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?
Market line without margin: Orlando City SC 47%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew 29%.