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Orlando City SC vs FC Cincinnati: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Orlando City SC · FC Cincinnati
Before kick-off
Orlando City SC host FC Cincinnati in MLS on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Orlando City SC are 17th, FC Cincinnati 16th in a table of 30.
Orlando City SC arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches. Recent results of FC Cincinnati are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Counted in points, Orlando City SC took 13 from that stretch and FC Cincinnati only 8.
The home record of Orlando City SC (2024–2026) is balanced: 27 wins, 12 draws and 16 defeats in 55 matches, 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. On the road FC Cincinnati are a dangerous side — 25 wins, 11 draws and 17 defeats in 53 away matches, 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of Orlando City SC and 3.5 in away matches of FC Cincinnati.
The 16 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Orlando City SC 6, FC Cincinnati 5, draws 5. Last time out (15 August 2026) it ended Orlando City SC 1:1 FC Cincinnati. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Orlando City SC: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
FC Cincinnati: last five matches — D-L-W-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Orlando City SC — 17, FC Cincinnati — 16 (of 30).
Home and away record
Orlando City SC at home and FC Cincinnati away, 2024–2026.
| Orlando City SC | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-12-16 | 25-11-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Orlando City SC won 6, 5 draws, FC Cincinnati won 5. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 15.08.2026: Orlando City SC 1:1 FC Cincinnati
- 23.05.2026: FC Cincinnati 6:2 Orlando City SC
- 11.02.2026: Orlando City SC 3:2 FC Cincinnati
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 60% of Orlando City SC home games and 68% of FC Cincinnati away games.
- Our model makes Orlando City SC the favourite at 53%; a draw is 19%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Orlando City SC 4.8, FC Cincinnati 5.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Orlando City SC 1.9, FC Cincinnati 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 42% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Orlando City SC win 53%, draw 19%, FC Cincinnati win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 80%, both teams to score — 76%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Orlando City SC | FC Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 49% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 68% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 70% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 40% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.1 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.