Xpect
Oxford United vs Wigan: prediction and statistics
England · League One · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Oxford United · Wigan
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Oxford United 5.1, Wigan 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Oxford United 1.5, Wigan 2.7; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 32%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 60%, typical match 51%.
Result
Our model: Oxford United win 66%, draw 22%, Wigan win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Oxford United: last five matches — W-W-D-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Wigan: last five matches — W-D-W-D-L.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Oxford United at home and Wigan away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Oxford United | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 50 |
| Win rate | 33% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 34% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 54% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 32% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Oxford United won 3, 1 draws, Wigan won 4. Per match: 3.6 goals, 10.5 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 13.02.2024: Oxford United 4:2 Wigan
- 24.10.2023: Wigan 2:0 Oxford United
- 01.02.2022: Wigan 1:1 Oxford United
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Oxford United vs Wigan?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Oxford United vs Wigan?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Oxford United vs Wigan?
Our model: Oxford United 66%, draw 22%, Wigan 13%.