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Ozgon vs Kara-Balta: prediction and statistics
Kyrgyzstan · Premier League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ozgon · Kara-Balta
Key facts
- Ozgon is the more likely winner in our model: 88%, draw 9%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of Ozgon’s home matches and 45% of Kara-Balta’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Ozgon: 3 wins in 3 meetings with Kara-Balta.
Result
Final score 2:0.
Result
Our model: Ozgon win 88%, draw 9%, Kara-Balta win 3%. Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 35%.
Form
Ozgon: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Kara-Balta: last five matches — L-D-L-D-D.
- 10 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Ozgon — 4, Kara-Balta — 16 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ozgon at home and Kara-Balta away, 2024–2026.
| Ozgon | Kara-Balta | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 40 |
| Win rate | 56% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 3% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Ozgon won 3, 0 draws, Kara-Balta won 0. Per match: 3.3 goals.
- 06.03.2026: Kara-Balta 1:2 Ozgon
- 03.11.2025: Kara-Balta 0:4 Ozgon
- 28.03.2025: Ozgon 3:0 Kara-Balta
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ozgon vs Kara-Balta?
Our model: Ozgon 88%, draw 9%, Kara-Balta 3%.