Xpect
Ozgon vs Neftchi: prediction and statistics
Kyrgyzstan · Premier League · 8 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Our model sees an open game: Ozgon 43%, draw 23%, Neftchi 35%.
- Ozgon has won 2 of the last 3 meetings with Neftchi.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 46% of Ozgon home games and 55% of Neftchi away games.
Result
Final score 3:1.
Result
Our model: Ozgon win 43%, draw 23%, Neftchi win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Ozgon: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Neftchi: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Ozgon — 3, Neftchi — 7 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Ozgon at home and Neftchi away, 2024–2026.
| Ozgon | Neftchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 28 | 38 |
| Win rate | 57% | 34% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 0% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Ozgon won 2, 1 draws, Neftchi won 0. Per match: 4.7 goals.
- 01.03.2026: Neftchi 1:2 Ozgon
- 21.09.2025: Ozgon 3:2 Neftchi
- 03.05.2025: Neftchi 3:3 Ozgon
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Ozgon vs Neftchi?
Our model: Ozgon 43%, draw 23%, Neftchi 35%.