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Palmeiras vs Bahia: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 9 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.8 corners in the match: Palmeiras 6.4, Bahia 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 64% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 52%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards: Palmeiras 2.2, Bahia 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 55% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 72%, typical match 72%.
Result
Market line without margin: Palmeiras win 61%, draw 23%, Bahia win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Palmeiras: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Bahia: last five matches — D-D-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Palmeiras — 2, Bahia — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Palmeiras at home and Bahia away, 2024–2026.
| Palmeiras | Bahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 52 |
| Win rate | 65% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 58% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Palmeiras won 12, 9 draws, Bahia won 4. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.2 corners, 4.4 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Bahia 1:2 Palmeiras
- 28.09.2025: Bahia 1:0 Palmeiras
- 27.04.2025: Palmeiras 0:1 Bahia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model expects 10.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 64%.
How many yellow cards in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our model expects 4.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 55%.
Who is more likely to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Market line without margin: Palmeiras 61%, draw 23%, Bahia 16%.