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Palmeiras vs Corinthians: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Palmeiras 6.3, Corinthians 4.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 61% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Palmeiras 2.1, Corinthians 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 50%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Palmeiras win 62%, draw 24%, Corinthians win 15%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Palmeiras: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Corinthians: last five matches — W-D-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Palmeiras — 2, Corinthians — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Palmeiras at home and Corinthians away, 2024–2026.
| Palmeiras | Corinthians | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 51 |
| Win rate | 65% | 24% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 47% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 6.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 51% | 77% |
Head to head
45 meetings in our database: Palmeiras won 15, 17 draws, Corinthians won 13. Per match: 2.0 goals, 10.9 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 12.04.2026: Corinthians 0:0 Palmeiras
- 08.02.2026: Corinthians 0:1 Palmeiras
- 31.08.2025: Corinthians 1:1 Palmeiras
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 61%.
How many yellow cards in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Market line without margin: Palmeiras 62%, draw 24%, Corinthians 15%.