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Patronato vs San Martin S.J.: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Primera Nacional · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Patronato 2.3, San Martin S.J. 2.9; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 59% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 59%, typical match 54%.
Result
Market line without margin: Patronato win 36%, draw 33%, San Martin S.J. win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 41%.
Form
Patronato: last five matches — D-D-W-L-D.
- 8 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
San Martin S.J.: last five matches — L-D-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Table: Patronato — 30, San Martin S.J. — 12 (of 36).
Team statistics for three seasons
Patronato at home and San Martin S.J. away, 2024–2026.
| Patronato | San Martin S.J. | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 37 |
| Win rate | 39% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 22% |
| Both teams score | 31% | 30% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 65% | 60% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Patronato won 3, 1 draws, San Martin S.J. won 6. Per match: 2.1 goals, 9.7 corners, 5.9 yellow cards.
- 09.05.2026: San Martin S.J. 1:1 Patronato
- 20.10.2024: Patronato 0:3 San Martin S.J.
- 02.06.2024: San Martin S.J. 1:0 Patronato
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 59%.
Who is more likely to win Patronato vs San Martin S.J.?
Market line without margin: Patronato 36%, draw 33%, San Martin S.J. 31%.