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Penarol vs Boston River: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Penarol 2.7, Boston River 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 64%, typical match 64%.
Result
Market line without margin: Penarol win 64%, draw 22%, Boston River win 14%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Penarol: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Boston River: last five matches — L-W-W-L-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Penarol — 1, Boston River — 14 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Penarol at home and Boston River away, 2024–2026.
| Penarol | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 39 | 36 |
| Win rate | 62% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 64% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Penarol won 10, 3 draws, Boston River won 0. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.0 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 18.07.2026: Penarol 3:0 Boston River
- 25.03.2026: Boston River 0:2 Penarol
- 15.02.2025: Penarol 1:1 Boston River
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Penarol vs Boston River?
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 64%.
Who is more likely to win Penarol vs Boston River?
Market line without margin: Penarol 64%, draw 22%, Boston River 14%.