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Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Philadelphia Union 6.3, Orlando City SC 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Philadelphia Union 2.1, Orlando City SC 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 47% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Philadelphia Union win 65%, draw 19%, Orlando City SC win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 74%, both teams to score — 66%.
Form
Philadelphia Union: last five matches — W-L-D-W-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · at home
Orlando City SC: last five matches — W-D-W-L-L.
- 8 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Philadelphia Union — 12, Orlando City SC — 14 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Philadelphia Union at home and Orlando City SC away, 2024–2026.
| Philadelphia Union | Orlando City SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 48 | 49 |
| Win rate | 44% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 74% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 45% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Philadelphia Union won 9, 7 draws, Orlando City SC won 9. Per match: 3.3 goals, 10.6 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 13.05.2026: Orlando City SC 4:3 Philadelphia Union
- 05.04.2025: Philadelphia Union 0:0 Orlando City SC
- 23.02.2025: Orlando City SC 2:4 Philadelphia Union
Referee
Sergii Demianchuk: 26 matches in our database, 4.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.2); over 4.5 cards in 35% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 47%.
Who is more likely to win Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City SC?
Market line without margin: Philadelphia Union 65%, draw 19%, Orlando City SC 16%.