Xpect
Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Poland 4.8, Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 43% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 56%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Poland 1.8, Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Poland win 58%, draw 25%, Bosnia and Herzegovina win 18%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Poland: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Bosnia and Herzegovina: last five matches — D-L-L-D-L.
- 10 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Poland at home and Bosnia and Herzegovina away, 2024–2026.
| Poland | Bosnia and Herzegovina | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 13 |
| Win rate | 60% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 27% | 23% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Poland won 2, 0 draws, Bosnia and Herzegovina won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals, 7.0 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 14.10.2020: Poland 3:0 Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 07.09.2020: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1:2 Poland
Referee
Anastasios Papapetrou: 161 matches in our database, 4.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 40% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 43%.
How many yellow cards in Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Market line without margin: Poland 58%, draw 25%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 18%.