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Police vs Kitara: prediction and statistics
Uganda · Premier League · 3 November 2026 · kick-off
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 38% of Police’s home matches and 27% of Kitara’s away matches over three seasons.
Result
Final score 1:1.
Result
Our model: Police win 24%, draw 28%, Kitara win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Police: last five matches — D-W-D-L-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Kitara: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
Table: Police — 6, Kitara — 10 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Police at home and Kitara away, 2024–2026.
| Police | Kitara | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 34 | 34 |
| Win rate | 47% | 35% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 27% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 35% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 9% | 12% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Police won 3, 1 draws, Kitara won 2. Per match: 3.2 goals, 1.7 yellow cards.
- 23.05.2026: Kitara 2:2 Police
- 27.11.2025: Police 1:2 Kitara
- 27.03.2025: Police 0:1 Kitara
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
Who is more likely to win Police vs Kitara?
Our model: Police 24%, draw 28%, Kitara 49%.