Xpect
Port Vale vs Grimsby: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Port Vale 4.9, Grimsby 5.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Port Vale 1.7, Grimsby 1.6; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 23% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 60%, typical match 49%.
Result
Market line without margin: Port Vale win 36%, draw 28%, Grimsby win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Port Vale: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Grimsby: last five matches — D-D-D-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Port Vale — 23, Grimsby — 6 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Port Vale at home and Grimsby away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Port Vale | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 26 | 51 |
| Win rate | 50% | 41% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 55% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 41% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Port Vale won 1, 4 draws, Grimsby won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals, 12.2 corners, 3.1 yellow cards.
- 21.04.2025: Port Vale 2:2 Grimsby
- 29.12.2024: Grimsby 3:0 Port Vale
- 21.07.2023: Port Vale 1:1 Grimsby
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 23%.
Who is more likely to win Port Vale vs Grimsby?
Market line without margin: Port Vale 36%, draw 28%, Grimsby 36%.