Xpect
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: prediction and statistics
Uruguay · Primera División · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.7 yellow cards: Progreso 2.9, Racing Montevideo 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 67% (typical match — 64%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 67%, typical match 64%.
Result
Market line without margin: Progreso win 23%, draw 29%, Racing Montevideo win 49%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Progreso: last five matches — L-W-L-W-L.
Racing Montevideo: last five matches — L-D-D-L-D.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 6 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Progreso — 16, Racing Montevideo — 3 (of 16).
Team statistics for three seasons
Progreso at home and Racing Montevideo away, 2024–2026.
| Progreso | Racing Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 36 |
| Win rate | 36% | 42% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 44% |
| Total corners per match | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 100% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 75% | 64% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Progreso won 3, 1 draws, Racing Montevideo won 6. Per match: 3.2 goals, 15.0 corners, 5.6 yellow cards.
- 26.03.2026: Racing Montevideo 1:1 Progreso
- 22.06.2025: Racing Montevideo 3:0 Progreso
- 30.03.2025: Progreso 0:1 Racing Montevideo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Our model expects 5.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 67%.
Who is more likely to win Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?
Market line without margin: Progreso 23%, draw 29%, Racing Montevideo 49%.