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Real Madrid II vs Real Murcia: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Real Madrid II · Real Murcia
Before kick-off
Primera Federación – Grupo 2, 20 November 2026: Real Madrid II are at home to Real Murcia. Real Murcia sit 3rd in the 20-team table while Real Madrid II are 9th, so 6 places separate the two sides. Real Murcia are in the top three.
Recent results of Real Madrid II are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Real Murcia have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Real Madrid II have 13 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats in 25 matches, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Real Murcia travel well: 20 wins, 9 draws and 15 defeats in 44 away matches, with 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 4 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 21 March 2025, finished Real Madrid II 0:0 Real Murcia. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Real Madrid II: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Real Murcia: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Real Madrid II — 9, Real Murcia — 3 (of 20).
Home and away record
Real Madrid II at home and Real Murcia away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Madrid II | Real Murcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-8-4 | 20-9-15 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Real Madrid II won 1, 2 draws, Real Murcia won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 21.03.2025: Real Madrid II 0:0 Real Murcia
- 06.12.2024: Real Murcia 3:1 Real Madrid II
- 24.02.2024: Real Madrid II 5:1 Real Murcia
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 48% of Real Madrid II’s home matches and 39% of Real Murcia’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 4 meetings.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Real Madrid II 2.5, Real Murcia 2.8; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 57%).
Result
Our model: Real Madrid II win 48%, draw 25%, Real Murcia win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Real Madrid II | Real Murcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 61% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.