Xpect
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Real Madrid 5.8, Villarreal 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Real Madrid 2.0, Villarreal 2.3; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 57%, typical match 44%.
Result
Market line without margin: Real Madrid win 71%, draw 17%, Villarreal win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 61%.
Form
Real Madrid: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 wins in a row · at home
Villarreal: last five matches — D-D-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Real Madrid — 4, Villarreal — 9 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Real Madrid at home and Villarreal away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Real Madrid | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 42 |
| Win rate | 85% | 45% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 52% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 29% | 62% |
Head to head
53 meetings in our database: Real Madrid won 30, 17 draws, Villarreal won 6. Per match: 3.2 goals, 10.4 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 24.01.2026: Villarreal 0:2 Real Madrid
- 04.10.2025: Real Madrid 3:1 Villarreal
- 15.03.2025: Villarreal 1:2 Real Madrid
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
Market line without margin: Real Madrid 71%, draw 17%, Villarreal 12%.