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Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction and statistics
USA · MLS · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Real Salt Lake 5.4, San Jose Earthquakes 5.1. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards: Real Salt Lake 2.0, San Jose Earthquakes 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 43% (typical match — 38%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 62%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Real Salt Lake win 53%, draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Form
Real Salt Lake: last five matches — L-D-L-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
San Jose Earthquakes: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Real Salt Lake — 22, San Jose Earthquakes — 8 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Real Salt Lake at home and San Jose Earthquakes away, 2024–2026.
| Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 47 |
| Win rate | 57% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 72% |
| Total corners per match | 10.1 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 45% | 61% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 43% |
Head to head
33 meetings in our database: Real Salt Lake won 11, 7 draws, San Jose Earthquakes won 15. Per match: 3.0 goals, 10.2 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 27.07.2025: Real Salt Lake 2:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 23.02.2025: San Jose Earthquakes 4:0 Real Salt Lake
- 06.10.2024: San Jose Earthquakes 0:1 Real Salt Lake
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model expects 4.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 43%.
Who is more likely to win Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Market line without margin: Real Salt Lake 53%, draw 24%, San Jose Earthquakes 24%.