Red Arrows vs Nkwazi: prediction and statistics

Zambia · Super League · 4 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Red Arrows · Nkwazi

Key facts

• Over 2.5 goals happened in 32% of Red Arrows’s home matches and 12% of Nkwazi’s away matches over three seasons.
• Draws are common in this fixture: 9 of 22 meetings.
• Red Arrows is the more likely winner in our model: 58%, draw 30%.

Result

Our model: Red Arrows win 58%, draw 30%, Nkwazi win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 23%, both teams to score — 24%.

Form

Red Arrows: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.

• 21 matches unbeaten · at home
• 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
• 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions

Nkwazi: last five matches — W-W-L-W-L.

• 13 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
• 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away

Team statistics for three seasons

Red Arrows at home and Nkwazi away, 2024–2026.

Head to head

22 meetings in our database: Red Arrows won 9, 9 draws, Nkwazi won 4. Per match: 1.5 goals.

• 19.03.2026: Red Arrows 0:0 Nkwazi
• 25.10.2025: Nkwazi 0:0 Red Arrows
• 01.03.2025: Nkwazi 0:0 Red Arrows

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers