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Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty: prediction and statistics
Europe · Conference League · 15 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Riga FC 6.3, Kairat Almaty 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.5. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 55% (typical match — 48%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 55%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Riga FC 2.3, Kairat Almaty 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 50%.
Result
Market line without margin: Riga FC win 50%, draw 26%, Kairat Almaty win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Riga FC: last five matches — W-W-W-D-D.
- 24 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Kairat Almaty: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Riga FC at home and Kairat Almaty away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Riga FC | Kairat Almaty | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Win rate | 100% | — |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | — |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | — |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | — |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | — |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 55%.
How many yellow cards in Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Market line without margin: Riga FC 50%, draw 26%, Kairat Almaty 24%.