Xpect
Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Primeira Liga · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Rio Ave 5.5, C.D. Nacional 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 57% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 57%, typical match 56%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Rio Ave 2.1, C.D. Nacional 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 52%, typical match 41%.
Form
Rio Ave: last five matches — D-W-L-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
C.D. Nacional: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Rio Ave — 16, C.D. Nacional — 15 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rio Ave at home and C.D. Nacional away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rio Ave | C.D. Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 37 |
| Win rate | 24% | 14% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 38% |
| Total corners per match | 10.7 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 46% |
Head to head
35 meetings in our database: Rio Ave won 11, 14 draws, C.D. Nacional won 10. Per match: 2.2 goals, 11.8 corners, 3.1 yellow cards.
- 25.01.2026: C.D. Nacional 4:0 Rio Ave
- 17.08.2025: Rio Ave 1:1 C.D. Nacional
- 10.05.2025: C.D. Nacional 3:3 Rio Ave
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 57%.
How many yellow cards in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.