Xpect
Rochdale vs Swindon Town: prediction and statistics
England · League Two · 3 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Rochdale 5.3, Swindon Town 4.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards: Rochdale 1.3, Swindon Town 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 22% (typical match — 31%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 60%, typical match 49%.
Result
Market line without margin: Rochdale win 42%, draw 27%, Swindon Town win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Form
Rochdale: last five matches — L-W-L-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Swindon Town: last five matches — L-D-L-L-L.
- 11 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Rochdale — 16, Swindon Town — 12 (of 24).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rochdale at home and Swindon Town away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rochdale | Swindon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 50 |
| Win rate | 50% | 34% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% |
| Total corners per match | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 25% | 62% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 16% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Rochdale won 4, 4 draws, Swindon Town won 5. Per match: 3.9 goals, 9.0 corners, 3.4 yellow cards.
- 18.03.2023: Rochdale 4:4 Swindon Town
- 20.08.2022: Swindon Town 3:0 Rochdale
- 02.04.2022: Rochdale 0:0 Swindon Town
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
Our model expects 3.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 22%.
Who is more likely to win Rochdale vs Swindon Town?
Market line without margin: Rochdale 42%, draw 27%, Swindon Town 32%.