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Roda vs Waalwijk: prediction and statistics
Netherlands · Eerste Divisie · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Roda 5.5, Waalwijk 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Roda 1.5, Waalwijk 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 24%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 73%, typical match 76%.
Result
Market line without margin: Roda win 38%, draw 26%, Waalwijk win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Roda: last five matches — D-D-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Waalwijk: last five matches — D-D-D-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Roda — 8, Waalwijk — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Roda at home and Waalwijk away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Roda | Waalwijk | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 24 |
| Win rate | 36% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 58% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 75% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 59% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 21% |
Head to head
6 meetings in our database: Roda won 2, 3 draws, Waalwijk won 1. Per match: 2.2 goals, 10.0 corners, 0.8 yellow cards.
- 01.05.2026: Waalwijk 1:1 Roda
- 28.04.2026: Roda 1:1 Waalwijk
- 13.02.2026: Waalwijk 1:2 Roda
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 52%.
How many yellow cards in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 27%.
Who is more likely to win Roda vs Waalwijk?
Market line without margin: Roda 38%, draw 26%, Waalwijk 36%.