Xpect
Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Rosario Central 5.4, Independ. Rivadavia 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Rosario Central 2.3, Independ. Rivadavia 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 74%.
Result
Market line without margin: Rosario Central win 45%, draw 30%, Independ. Rivadavia win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Rosario Central: last five matches — W-D-L-D-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 wins in a row · all competitions
Independ. Rivadavia: last five matches — L-D-W-L-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Rosario Central — 5, Independ. Rivadavia — 3 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rosario Central at home and Independ. Rivadavia away, 2024–2026.
| Rosario Central | Independ. Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 44 |
| Win rate | 49% | 32% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 32% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 41% |
| Total corners per match | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 49% | 34% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 61% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Rosario Central won 3, 2 draws, Independ. Rivadavia won 2. Per match: 2.3 goals, 6.3 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 23.03.2026: Independ. Rivadavia 2:0 Rosario Central
- 05.11.2024: Independ. Rivadavia 1:1 Rosario Central
- 08.02.2024: Rosario Central 1:0 Independ. Rivadavia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 45%.
How many yellow cards in Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Market line without margin: Rosario Central 45%, draw 30%, Independ. Rivadavia 25%.