Səbail vs Cəbrayıl: prediction and statistics

Azerbaijan · First Division · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 11:00 UTC

Team stats: Səbail · Cəbrayıl

Key facts

• Over 2.5 goals happened in 38% of Səbail’s home matches and 48% of Cəbrayıl’s away matches over three seasons.
• Head to head favours Səbail: 2 wins in 3 meetings with Cəbrayıl.
• Səbail is the more likely winner in our model: 64%, draw 20%.

Result

Our model: Səbail win 64%, draw 20%, Cəbrayıl win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 55%.

Form

Səbail: last five matches — W-D-W-D-D.

• 10 matches unbeaten · at home
• 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home

Cəbrayıl: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.

• 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away

Table: Səbail — 4, Cəbrayıl — 1 (of 10).

Team statistics for three seasons

Səbail at home and Cəbrayıl away, 2024/25–2026/27.

Head to head

3 meetings in our database: Səbail won 2, 0 draws, Cəbrayıl won 1. Per match: 4.3 goals.

• 30.04.2026: Səbail 6:0 Cəbrayıl
• 06.03.2026: Cəbrayıl 1:4 Səbail
• 27.11.2025: Səbail 0:2 Cəbrayıl

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers