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San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: San Lorenzo 4.8, Deportivo Riestra 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: San Lorenzo 2.0, Deportivo Riestra 3.1; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 58% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: San Lorenzo win 42%, draw 33%, Deportivo Riestra win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 27%, both teams to score — 36%.
Form
San Lorenzo: last five matches — W-L-W-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Deportivo Riestra: last five matches — L-L-D-D-D.
- 20 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: San Lorenzo — 20, Deportivo Riestra — 28 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
San Lorenzo at home and Deportivo Riestra away, 2024–2026.
| San Lorenzo | Deportivo Riestra | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 43 |
| Win rate | 41% | 12% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21% | 28% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 33% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 75% | 61% |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: San Lorenzo won 1, 3 draws, Deportivo Riestra won 1. Per match: 1.2 goals, 6.8 corners, 6.0 yellow cards.
- 17.07.2026: San Lorenzo 1:1 Deportivo Riestra
- 25.03.2026: Deportivo Riestra 1:1 San Lorenzo
- 31.10.2025: San Lorenzo 1:0 Deportivo Riestra
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 58%.
Who is more likely to win San Lorenzo vs Deportivo Riestra?
Market line without margin: San Lorenzo 42%, draw 33%, Deportivo Riestra 25%.