Xpect
San Marino vs Finland: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: San Marino 4.2, Finland 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 37% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 63%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: San Marino 2.2, Finland 1.7; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: San Marino win 4%, draw 9%, Finland win 87%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 25%.
Form
San Marino: last five matches — L-L-L-D-L.
- 14 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Finland: last five matches — L-W-D-L-L.
- 3 matches without a win · away
Team statistics for three seasons
San Marino at home and Finland away, 2024–2026.
| San Marino | Finland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 15 |
| Win rate | 8% | 13% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 58% | 23% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: San Marino won 0, 0 draws, Finland won 2. Per match: 4.5 goals, 7.5 corners, 4.0 yellow cards.
- 20.11.2023: San Marino 1:2 Finland
- 19.06.2023: Finland 6:0 San Marino
Referee
Nathan Verboomen: 222 matches in our database, 4.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 45% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in San Marino vs Finland?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 37%.
How many yellow cards in San Marino vs Finland?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win San Marino vs Finland?
Market line without margin: San Marino 4%, draw 9%, Finland 87%.