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Santos vs Flamengo: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 8 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Santos 5.6, Flamengo 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 59%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: Santos 2.3, Flamengo 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 45%.
Result
Market line without margin: Santos win 23%, draw 26%, Flamengo win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Santos: last five matches — W-D-D-W-W.
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Flamengo: last five matches — D-W-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Santos — 8, Flamengo — 1 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Santos at home and Flamengo away, 2024–2026.
| Santos | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 52 |
| Win rate | 42% | 50% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 60% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 70% | 48% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 76% | 56% |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Santos won 9, 8 draws, Flamengo won 15. Per match: 2.7 goals, 10.3 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 05.04.2026: Flamengo 3:1 Santos
- 09.11.2025: Flamengo 3:2 Santos
- 16.07.2025: Santos 1:0 Flamengo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Santos vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Santos vs Flamengo?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win Santos vs Flamengo?
Market line without margin: Santos 23%, draw 26%, Flamengo 52%.