Xpect
Sao Paulo vs Santos: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie A · 2 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Sao Paulo 6.1, Santos 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 59%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Sao Paulo 2.2, Santos 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 55%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 70%, typical match 72%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sao Paulo win 47%, draw 29%, Santos win 25%. Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Sao Paulo: last five matches — W-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Santos: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
Table: Sao Paulo — 11, Santos — 8 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sao Paulo at home and Santos away, 2024–2026.
| Sao Paulo | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 51 | 32 |
| Win rate | 59% | 25% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 10.2 | 10.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.1 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 50% |
Head to head
38 meetings in our database: Sao Paulo won 17, 8 draws, Santos won 13. Per match: 2.6 goals, 8.6 corners, 5.7 yellow cards.
- 04.02.2026: Santos 1:1 Sao Paulo
- 31.01.2026: Sao Paulo 2:0 Santos
- 21.09.2025: Santos 1:0 Sao Paulo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.
Who is more likely to win Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Market line without margin: Sao Paulo 47%, draw 29%, Santos 25%.