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Sassuolo vs AC Milan: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie A · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Sassuolo 4.8, AC Milan 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 10.0. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 45% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 55%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Sassuolo 1.9, AC Milan 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 64%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sassuolo win 22%, draw 25%, AC Milan win 52%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Sassuolo: last five matches — L-W-W-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
AC Milan: last five matches — L-W-W-D-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Sassuolo — 10, AC Milan — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sassuolo at home and AC Milan away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sassuolo | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 21 | 41 |
| Win rate | 52% | 51% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 57% | 34% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 29% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Sassuolo won 8, 5 draws, AC Milan won 12. Per match: 3.4 goals, 10.7 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 03.05.2026: Sassuolo 2:0 AC Milan
- 14.12.2025: AC Milan 2:2 Sassuolo
- 03.12.2024: AC Milan 6:1 Sassuolo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 45%.
How many yellow cards in Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Sassuolo vs AC Milan?
Market line without margin: Sassuolo 22%, draw 25%, AC Milan 52%.