Xpect
Savoia vs Sorrento: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Serie C – Girone C, 21 November 2026: Savoia are at home to Sorrento. Sorrento sit 9th in the 20-team table while Savoia are 18th, so 9 places separate the two sides. Savoia are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Recent results of Savoia are mostly positive — 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 5 games. Sorrento are still looking for a win: 1 draw and 4 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 8 for Savoia against 1 for Sorrento.
Savoia have not made their ground a fortress: 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The away record of Sorrento: 12 wins, 8 draws and 25 defeats in 45 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. The most recent meeting, on 27 October 2026, finished Savoia 2:0 Sorrento.
Form
Savoia: last five matches — D-W-D-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Sorrento: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Table: Savoia — 18, Sorrento — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Savoia at home and Sorrento away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Savoia | Sorrento | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 1-3-2 | 12-8-25 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Savoia won 1, 0 draws, Sorrento won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 27.10.2026: Savoia 2:0 Sorrento
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Savoia is the more likely winner in our model: 55%, draw 23%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Savoia’s home matches and 38% of Sorrento’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Savoia 2.2, Sorrento 1.9; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 61%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Savoia win 55%, draw 23%, Sorrento win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Savoia | Sorrento | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 17% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 100% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 49% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.