Xpect
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: prediction and statistics
Bulgaria · First League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Septemvri Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Before kick-off
Septemvri Sofia host Lokomotiv Plovdiv in First League on 20 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Septemvri Sofia are 12th, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11th in a table of 14. Septemvri Sofia are in the bottom three.
Septemvri Sofia have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 7.
Home matches have been a struggle for Septemvri Sofia (2024/25–2026/27) — 15 wins, 8 draws and 22 defeats in 45 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.5 on average. Away from home Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 12 wins, 15 draws and 18 defeats in 45 matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The 15 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Septemvri Sofia 5, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 7, draws 3. Last time out (26 July 2026) it ended Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2:1 Septemvri Sofia. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Septemvri Sofia: last five matches — W-L-L-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Lokomotiv Plovdiv: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Septemvri Sofia — 12, Lokomotiv Plovdiv — 11 (of 14).
Home and away record
Septemvri Sofia at home and Lokomotiv Plovdiv away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Septemvri Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-8-22 | 12-15-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Septemvri Sofia won 5, 3 draws, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 26.07.2026: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2:1 Septemvri Sofia
- 13.03.2026: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1:0 Septemvri Sofia
- 03.10.2025: Septemvri Sofia 2:2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 44% of Septemvri Sofia home games and 40% of Lokomotiv Plovdiv away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Septemvri Sofia 27%, draw 29%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Septemvri Sofia 2.2, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 72%.
Result
Our model: Septemvri Sofia win 27%, draw 29%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Septemvri Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 33% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 46% | 22% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 58% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 7.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.