Xpect
Serbia vs Netherlands: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.0 corners in the match: Serbia 4.7, Netherlands 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 41% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Serbia 1.8, Netherlands 1.6; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 56%, typical match 37%.
Result
Market line without margin: Serbia win 12%, draw 21%, Netherlands win 67%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Serbia: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
Netherlands: last five matches — D-W-W-W-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
- 6 matches unbeaten · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Serbia at home and Netherlands away, 2024–2026.
| Serbia | Netherlands | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| Win rate | 50% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 30% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 7.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 67% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 22% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Serbia vs Netherlands?
Our model expects 9.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 41%.
How many yellow cards in Serbia vs Netherlands?
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 26%.
Who is more likely to win Serbia vs Netherlands?
Market line without margin: Serbia 12%, draw 21%, Netherlands 67%.