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Slovakia vs Moldova: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Slovakia 5.5, Moldova 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 60%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Slovakia 1.6, Moldova 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 64%, typical match 63%.
Result
Market line without margin: Slovakia win 80%, draw 14%, Moldova win 6%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 38%.
Form
Slovakia: last five matches — W-L-W-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
Moldova: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 15 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Slovakia at home and Moldova away, 2024–2026.
| Slovakia | Moldova | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| Win rate | 64% | 15% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 39% |
| Both teams score | 29% | 62% |
| Total corners per match | 9.7 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 60% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.3 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 31% |
Referee
Juxhin Xhaja: 78 matches in our database, 5.1 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 60% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Slovakia vs Moldova?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Slovakia vs Moldova?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Slovakia vs Moldova?
Market line without margin: Slovakia 80%, draw 14%, Moldova 6%.