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Slovenia vs North Macedonia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 29 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Slovenia 4.9, North Macedonia 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: Slovenia 1.7, North Macedonia 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Slovenia win 55%, draw 25%, North Macedonia win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Slovenia: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
North Macedonia: last five matches — L-L-D-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Slovenia at home and North Macedonia away, 2024–2026.
| Slovenia | North Macedonia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 15 |
| Win rate | 33% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 53% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 27% |
| Total corners per match | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 36% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 14% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Slovenia won 0, 2 draws, North Macedonia won 1. Per match: 2.3 goals, 6.3 corners, 5.7 yellow cards.
- 01.06.2021: North Macedonia 1:1 Slovenia
- 10.10.2019: North Macedonia 2:1 Slovenia
- 24.03.2019: Slovenia 1:1 North Macedonia
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 37%.
Who is more likely to win Slovenia vs North Macedonia?
Market line without margin: Slovenia 55%, draw 25%, North Macedonia 19%.