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Slovenia vs Scotland: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Slovenia 4.6, Scotland 4.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Slovenia 2.0, Scotland 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Slovenia win 38%, draw 30%, Scotland win 32%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Slovenia: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Scotland: last five matches — W-D-W-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Slovenia at home and Scotland away, 2024–2026.
| Slovenia | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| Win rate | 33% | 55% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 7.6 | 10.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 38% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 25% | 40% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Slovenia won 0, 1 draws, Scotland won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals, 10.0 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 08.10.2017: Slovenia 2:2 Scotland
- 26.03.2017: Scotland 1:0 Slovenia
Referee
Horatiu Fesnic: 245 matches in our database, 4.8 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 53% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Slovenia vs Scotland?
Our model expects 9.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 42%.
How many yellow cards in Slovenia vs Scotland?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 36%.
Who is more likely to win Slovenia vs Scotland?
Market line without margin: Slovenia 38%, draw 30%, Scotland 32%.