Xpect
Spain vs Croatia: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 29 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Spain 5.5, Croatia 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 61%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Spain 1.5, Croatia 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 68%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Spain win 71%, draw 18%, Croatia win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 44%.
Form
Spain: last five matches — W-D-W-D-D.
- 38 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 7 wins in a row · all competitions
Croatia: last five matches — W-D-W-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Spain at home and Croatia away, 2024–2026.
| Spain | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 13 |
| Win rate | 60% | 46% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 62% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 8.4 | 11.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 67% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 8% |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: Spain won 3, 2 draws, Croatia won 2. Per match: 3.4 goals, 8.7 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.
- 15.06.2024: Spain 3:0 Croatia
- 18.06.2023: Croatia 0:0 Spain
- 28.06.2021: Croatia 3:3 Spain
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Spain vs Croatia?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Spain vs Croatia?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 32%.
Who is more likely to win Spain vs Croatia?
Market line without margin: Spain 71%, draw 18%, Croatia 11%.