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SS Monopoli vs Cavese: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone C · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: SS Monopoli · Cavese
Before kick-off
Serie C – Girone C, 21 November 2026: SS Monopoli are at home to Cavese. SS Monopoli sit 6th in the 20-team table while Cavese are 12th, so 6 places separate the two sides.
No defeats for SS Monopoli in the last 5 games (2 wins and 3 draws). Cavese are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 9 for SS Monopoli against 3 for Cavese.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) SS Monopoli have 21 wins, 17 draws and 6 defeats in 44 matches, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Cavese — 7 wins, 18 draws and 19 defeats in 44 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 7 meetings — wins: SS Monopoli 4, Cavese 3; draws: 0. The most recent meeting, on 10 February 2026, finished Cavese 1:0 SS Monopoli. On average these meetings produce 1.6 goals.
Form
SS Monopoli: last five matches — W-D-D-W-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
Cavese: last five matches — D-L-D-L-D.
- 9 matches without a win · away
Table: SS Monopoli — 6, Cavese — 12 (of 20).
Home and away record
SS Monopoli at home and Cavese away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| SS Monopoli | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-17-6 | 7-18-19 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
Head to head
7 meetings in our database: SS Monopoli won 4, 0 draws, Cavese won 3. Per match: 1.6 goals.
- 10.02.2026: Cavese 1:0 SS Monopoli
- 28.09.2025: SS Monopoli 0:2 Cavese
- 26.01.2025: SS Monopoli 3:1 Cavese
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 32% of SS Monopoli’s home matches and 46% of Cavese’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: SS Monopoli 1.8, Cavese 2.0; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: SS Monopoli win 48%, draw 29%, Cavese win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 35%, both teams to score — 40%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| SS Monopoli | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 48% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 41% | 34% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.