Sunrise vs Al Merreikh: prediction and statistics

Rwanda · National Soccer League · 5 November 2026 · kick-off 13:00 UTC

Team stats: Sunrise · Al Merreikh

Key facts

• No clear favourite in our model: 26% – 31% – 43%.

Result

Our model: Sunrise win 26%, draw 31%, Al Merreikh win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 37%.

Form

Sunrise: last five matches — W-W-W-D-D.

• 5 matches unbeaten · at home
• 4 matches without a win · all competitions
• 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home

Al Merreikh: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.

• 8 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
• 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
• 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions

Table: Sunrise — 9, Al Merreikh — 18 (of 19).

Team statistics for three seasons

Sunrise at home and Al Merreikh away, 2024–2026.

Referee

The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.

How we calculate

Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.

Questions and answers