Xpect
Surkhon vs Andijan: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Surkhon host Andijan in Super League on 19 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Surkhon are 11th, Andijan 10th in a table of 16.
Surkhon have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. Andijan are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches.
The home record of Surkhon (2024–2026) is balanced: 16 wins, 12 draws and 13 defeats in 41 matches, 1.0 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Away from home Andijan have 8 wins, 15 draws and 18 defeats in 41 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.6 per game.
The 15 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Surkhon 8, Andijan 4, draws 3. Last time out (18 July 2026) it ended Andijan 1:2 Surkhon. On average these meetings produce 2.3 goals.
Form
Surkhon: last five matches — D-L-W-D-D.
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · all competitions
Andijan: last five matches — L-L-W-D-L.
- 14 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Surkhon — 11, Andijan — 10 (of 16).
Home and away record
Surkhon at home and Andijan away, 2024–2026.
| Surkhon | Andijan | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 16-12-13 | 8-15-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.6 |
Head to head
15 meetings in our database: Surkhon won 8, 3 draws, Andijan won 4. Per match: 2.3 goals.
- 18.07.2026: Andijan 1:2 Surkhon
- 27.10.2025: Surkhon 4:0 Andijan
- 23.05.2025: Andijan 2:1 Surkhon
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 42% of Surkhon home games and 51% of Andijan away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Surkhon 41%, draw 29%, Andijan 30%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Surkhon 1.6, Andijan 1.9; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 28% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 53%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Surkhon win 41%, draw 29%, Andijan win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Surkhon | Andijan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 39% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 51% |
| Both teams score | 39% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 20% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.