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Sweden vs Poland: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 28 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Sweden 5.0, Poland 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 59%, typical match 55%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Sweden 1.8, Poland 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sweden win 50%, draw 24%, Poland win 26%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.
Form
Sweden: last five matches — L-L-D-W-D.
- 3 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Poland: last five matches — L-D-W-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Sweden at home and Poland away, 2024–2026.
| Sweden | Poland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 9 |
| Win rate | 62% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 56% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 56% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 50% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Sweden won 2, 0 draws, Poland won 1. Per match: 4.0 goals, 14.0 corners, 4.7 yellow cards.
- 31.03.2026: Sweden 3:2 Poland
- 29.03.2022: Poland 2:0 Sweden
- 23.06.2021: Sweden 3:2 Poland
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sweden vs Poland?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Sweden vs Poland?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 34%.
Who is more likely to win Sweden vs Poland?
Market line without margin: Sweden 50%, draw 24%, Poland 26%.