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Sweden vs Romania: prediction and statistics
Europe · Nations League · 25 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Sweden 5.6, Romania 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 42%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 42%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Sweden 1.9, Romania 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 57%.
Result
Market line without margin: Sweden win 64%, draw 21%, Romania win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 54%.
Form
Sweden: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 wins in a row · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Romania: last five matches — L-D-W-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 6 wins in a row · all competitions
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
Sweden at home and Romania away, 2024–2026.
| Sweden | Romania | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 11 |
| Win rate | 62% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 73% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 62% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 31% | 55% |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Sweden won 2, 0 draws, Romania won 1. Per match: 2.0 goals, 9.0 corners, 3.7 yellow cards.
- 15.11.2019: Romania 0:2 Sweden
- 23.03.2019: Sweden 2:1 Romania
- 27.03.2018: Romania 1:0 Sweden
Referee
Ondrej Berka: 184 matches in our database, 4.0 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.7); over 4.5 cards in 37% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sweden vs Romania?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Sweden vs Romania?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Sweden vs Romania?
Market line without margin: Sweden 64%, draw 21%, Romania 16%.