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Teruel vs Hércules: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 2 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Before kick-off
Primera Federación – Grupo 2, 20 November 2026: Teruel are at home to Hércules. Hércules sit 7th in the 20-team table while Teruel are 20th, so 13 places separate the two sides. Teruel are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Teruel: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Hércules have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 6 against 7.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Teruel have 9 wins, 10 draws and 6 defeats in 25 matches, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Hércules — 7 wins, 13 draws and 23 defeats in 43 away matches, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.6 on average.
Head to head, Teruel have the upper hand: 3 wins in 4 meetings with Hércules in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Hércules 3:1 Teruel. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Teruel: last five matches — L-D-W-D-D.
- 11 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
Hércules: last five matches — W-W-L-L-D.
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Teruel — 20, Hércules — 7 (of 20).
Home and away record
Teruel at home and Hércules away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Teruel | Hércules | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 9-10-6 | 7-13-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 1.6 |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Teruel won 3, 0 draws, Hércules won 1. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 26.04.2026: Hércules 3:1 Teruel
- 05.10.2025: Teruel 2:1 Hércules
- 19.02.2023: Hércules 0:2 Teruel
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 12% of Teruel’s home matches and 49% of Hércules’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Teruel: 3 wins in 4 meetings with Hércules.
- No clear favourite in our model: 30% – 31% – 39%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Teruel 2.7, Hércules 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 57%).
Result
Our model: Teruel win 30%, draw 31%, Hércules win 39%. Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Teruel | Hércules | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 36% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 12% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 28% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 51% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.