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Tigres UANL vs Puebla: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 27 September 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Tigres UANL 6.2, Puebla 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards: Tigres UANL 1.7, Puebla 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Result
Market line without margin: Tigres UANL win 61%, draw 23%, Puebla win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Tigres UANL: last five matches — D-D-D-W-D.
- 14 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Puebla: last five matches — L-L-W-L-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Tigres UANL — 16, Puebla — 8 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Tigres UANL at home and Puebla away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Tigres UANL | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 39 |
| Win rate | 64% | 18% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 52% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.4 | 10.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 59% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 39% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Tigres UANL won 12, 7 draws, Puebla won 5. Per match: 2.8 goals, 10.2 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 05.03.2026: Puebla 3:1 Tigres UANL
- 09.08.2025: Tigres UANL 7:0 Puebla
- 05.04.2025: Puebla 0:0 Tigres UANL
Referee
Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce: 31 matches in our database, 3.3 yellow cards per match (competition average 4.4); over 4.5 cards in 26% of matches.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
Our model expects 4.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 39%.
Who is more likely to win Tigres UANL vs Puebla?
Market line without margin: Tigres UANL 61%, draw 23%, Puebla 17%.